Honest answer: it varies hugely by country, city size, and how much effort you invest, but the pattern is fairly universal. Locals already have full lives and established circles, so friendships rarely happen by accident the way they do among fellow expats. The people who succeed treat it like a slow-growing plant: repeated contact in the same setting over months.
The settings that work best are ones with built-in regularity and a shared purpose. Weekly sports clubs, choirs, hiking groups, volunteering, hobby classes, and religious communities all beat one-off networking events, because you see the same faces every week and conversation has a natural subject. Workplaces can deliver friendships too, though in some cultures colleagues keep work and private life firmly separated.
Language is the multiplier. Even clumsy attempts at the local language signal commitment and open doors that English-only socializing never will. Expect the first year to feel slow, and do not read that as rejection; depth simply takes longer with locals than with fellow expats.